Runway And It's Future

THE EDIT · Industry Outlook · The Business of Fashion

Runway, Right Now: Status Check and the 12–24-Month Outlook

Clear read: the industry isn’t crashing—it’s tightening. Growth pockets exist, budgets are selective, and runway must work harder for measurable ROI. Here’s the state of play and what wins next, especially for Chicago.

Snapshot: 2025 reality

• Executive sentiment: Only ~20% expect improvement; ~39% expect tougher conditions. Translation: runway has to prove payback.
• Luxury growth: Minimal (~1–3% globally through 2027). The U.S. remains the relative bright spot (~4–6%), but price-led gains are fading.
• Budget posture: Fewer, sharper shows; outcomes concentrated around a handful of high-impact moments.
• Lack of infrastructure: Specifically in Chicago, there is no garment district, a necessary for a fashion capital

Reach and ROI: where shows pay back

Media value consolidates around the right mix of timing, talent, and narrative. Recent NYFW cycles have posted nine-figure media-impact values—proof that a single well-designed moment can swing a season. Make the front row a capital-allocation decision, not an aesthetic one.

• Design for distribution: Build the show for reels, stills, and quick editorial. Own the recap window (first 48 hours).
• Prove it numerically: Track cost per qualified lead, post-show sell-through by look, and on-site conversions (QR / NFC tap-to-shop).
• Shift from price to value: Consumers reward craft, quality, and newness over price signaling alone.

12–24-month outlook

Base case: A grind, not a cliff. Budgets remain selective and scrutiny high, but demand holds for strong product. McKinsey & BoF’s State of Fashion 2025 forecasts 2–4% global growth, with North America at the low end yet steady for brands offering clear value. U.S. Q1 2025 earnings echoed this balance—Abercrombie & Fitch raised guidance while others stayed cautious—showing tightening, not collapse.

Where growth hides: Tourism and hospitality continue to drive spend in U.S. cities like Chicago, Miami, and Las Vegas (Colliers). Global travel retail is projected to grow at a 12.1% CAGR through 2034, led by luxury categories. Within fashion, accessible luxury and design-led capsules outperform, with Bain noting “entry luxury” growing 6–8% faster than traditional tiers.

What changes: Price hikes that lifted margins from 2021–2023 are slowing. The Financial Times projects U.S. luxury growth at only 1–3% annually through 2027. Deloitte’s 2025 Retail Outlook stresses winners will be those with strong first-party data, sharper product mix, and conversion efficiency—measuring success not by price increases but by how well they turn attention into purchase and build lasting loyalty

Chicago-forward: a practical playbook

Chicago has the foundations to position itself as a fashion capital: a luxury retail corridor on Oak Street that attracts global houses like Hermès, Chanel, and Prada; the Fashion Outlets of Chicago, which draw consumers with an average household income of $128,000 within 30 miles; and a fashion community numbering in the tens of thousands, including designers, stylists, retailers, and creatives. To elevate further, the city must build garment-district infrastructure comparable to New York, secure sustained civic support through unified initiatives like Chicago Fashion Week, and provide resources that retain emerging talent locally. Data shows that inclusive, community-centered programming—foregrounding Black and Brown designers and interdisciplinary collaborations—already differentiates Chicago’s scene. Scaling that ethos through coordinated marketing and institutional backing is the next step in establishing the city as a global fashion hub.

Chicago’s edge is execution. If we link runway to conversion and first-party data, the city wins, designers, partners, and buyers together. See upcoming shows on Runway, dive into process on Craft Atelier, and save looks in Lookbooks.

Sources

• State of Fashion 2025 (McKinsey & Business of Fashion): executive sentiment and regional growth ranges for global fashion and luxury.

• State of Luxury 2025 (Altagamma/Bain): outlook on consumer demand shifts and regional luxury spending.

• Launchmetrics Media Impact Value™ reports on NYFW (2023–2024): comparative benchmarks for audience reach and sponsor ROI.

• Economic impact studies of New York, Paris, and Milan Fashion Weeks (Oxford Economics; IFDAQ): municipal revenue and sponsor engagement models.

• Chicago Fashion Coalition, Beyond the Runway: The Economic and Social Impacts of Chicago Fashion (2023): local data on industry size, workforce, and civic opportunities.